Keep a Decision Journal Before Luck Rewrites the Story

Outcomes are noisy. Without a record of what you believed beforehand, a lucky result can make weak reasoning feel smart and a bad result can erase a good process.

Capture the bet

Write the decision, the options you rejected, the evidence you used, and what would change your mind. Keep it brief enough to do in the moment.

Review calibration

Later, compare the result to the reasoning. The goal is not to be right every time; it is to notice the patterns in your judgment.