Run Smaller Experiments Before Bigger Bets

Big choices often contain a smaller question that can be tested first. A trial, prototype, conversation, or limited commitment can produce better evidence than another month of speculation.

Name the uncertainty

Ask what you actually need to learn: demand, capacity, skill, cost, or appetite. Then design the smallest honest test that can answer it.

Keep the downside survivable

A useful experiment limits irreversible cost while preserving the upside of learning. The point is not to avoid risk; it is to buy better information.